Recently, under the hype of the weather, agricultural products such as soybean meal and corn have rebounded and reached a new high; However, the weakness of deformed steel bar is obvious, and it has become the first variety to innovate low recently, showing an independent falling market. Experts said that from the perspective of capital and industry fundamentals, the possibility of big steel mills shorting and reshuffling the industry could not be ruled out. Even if it is not the hedging offer of a large steel plant, this wave of funds may inadvertently promote the survival of the fittest in the industry

The deformed steel bar presents“ Weird” Quote

Yesterday, the commodity market was still in shock, with rebar futures up 0.11% to 3703 yuan/ton, which is still in the process of bottoming out. The turnover approached 1.5 million hands, the largest in the near future

From the perspective of market position, the recent rebar market comparison“ Weird”. Experts pointed out that the main short position capital of the market entered the market after falling below 4000 points in the fall of rebar, which is different from the operating principle of big steel plants to hedge against high prices. It is impossible to judge whether it is the new speculative capital or the additional hedging position of big steel plants

However, in the process of continuous entry of short funds, the proportion of market clearance orders kept rising, reaching the peak of more than 79000 hands on July 19, and short funds completely prevailed

In the process of decline, the spot price and steel factory factory price matched the market, which made the thread futures price fall below the low point of market adjustment in October last year. However, to the disappointment of the market, no signal of centralized production reduction and maintenance has been seen so far

Accelerate the survival of the fittest in the steel industry

It should be noted that the status quo of the steel industry has emerged“ A vicious circle” The situation of

“ In the current market, the production reduction of private small steel plants is also insufficient. The enterprises are worried that the bank will urge loans after the shutdown, and they may fall down immediately, so they can only produce hard& rdquo; Zhang Junling, an analyst with Dongxing Futures, said

According to the price of iron ore and coke, the cost of the enterprise is calculated. The steel price below 3700 yuan is lower than the cost of the steel mill. After the steel price fell, the iron ore and steel billets that had resisted the decline in the early stage appeared to cover the decline, which formed a vicious circle of alternate decline of finished products and raw materials

Steel mills also cut the ex factory price after the continuous decline of futures and cash. The ex factory price of HRB400 of Shagang, the leading steel mill in East China, has dropped by 250 yuan to 3920 yuan/ton from the high of 4170 yuan/ton at the end of June. However, the fall in steel prices did not stimulate demand, and domestic stocks in the same period were still as high as 6.7 million tons. During the same period, the crude steel output remained close to the level of 1.95 million tons, and there was no sign of large-scale production reduction

“ Deadknot” No solution in the short term

Futures and spot stocks fell continuously, but steel mills did not reduce production, which made inventories rise, and the market continued to fall&hellip& hellip; Such“ Deadknot” At present, there is still no solution

Previously, the market expected the state to introduce policies to stimulate the economy to stabilize the market, but the current situation is: as soon as the real estate transaction heats up, the policy is busy“ Water to cool down”. Recently, the General Office of the State Council issued a document saying that it will specially supervise the implementation of the real estate market regulation policies and measures. If the implementation of the real estate market regulation policies and measures is biased or not in place, the supervision team of the State Council will urge rectification

Although the monetary policy has been gradually relaxed, the new loans in June exceeded 900 billion, and the market expects that the new loans in July will also exceed 700 billion. However, due to the poor industrial situation, the demand for credit other than bills is also insufficient, and the real economy's demand for various raw materials has not improved significantly. Combined with the hot weather in early July, the weak market is vulnerable in the construction off-season

Zhang Junling said:“ Originally, the market expected domestic stimulus policies, especially the moderate relaxation of property market regulation, but after the two ministries stopped the local relaxation of policies, the real estate rescue card could not be issued again. The policy to save the market can only wait for the industry to reshuffle itself and eliminate weak enterprises. Judging from the current market environment, the shutdown will lead to the loss of bank credit and bankruptcy. In such a bad environment, the elimination of a number of enterprises may make the market really hit the bottom& rdquo;