Focus on Sichuan Economy Quarterly Report

 

In the first quarter of this year, the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic brought an unprecedented impact on my country's economic and social development. On April 20, the first quarterly report of the Sichuan economy announced that it achieved a gross regional product (GDP) of 1,017.285 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.

 

How to read this unusual quarterly report? In the face of the central government’s general requirement for economic work that "stability is the overall situation, we must ensure that the epidemic does not rebound, stabilize the economic fundamentals, and maintain the bottom line of people's livelihood", how should Sichuan plan and act in the next stage?

 

The overall GDP growth rate in the first quarter was negative, but the total amount still exceeded one trillion yuan, and the “basic disk” of Sichuan’s economic growth remained strong

 

The vigorous epidemic forced traditional industries to accelerate the embrace of new technologies and new applications. In the first quarter, the added value of industrial high-tech industries in the province ran a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2%.

 

There are three issues that need to be paid close attention to at this stage: resumption of work and production, consumer demand and people’s livelihood

 

□ Sichuan Online reporter Zhu Xueli

 

how about it?

 

Under the unprecedented shock, the GDP growth rate is rarely negative, but the total amount is equivalent to the annual economic scale of 2007

 

The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought unprecedented impact to the economic and social development of the province. In the first quarter, Sichuan's GDP growth rate dropped by 3% year-on-year, which is one of the most intuitive manifestations.

 

"From historical data, a -3% GDP growth rate is extremely rare, and it has never been seen in Sichuan since the reform and opening up." At the first quarter of 2020 Sichuan economic situation conference held on the same day, the chief economist and press of the Provincial Statistics Bureau spoke Zeng Junlin said.

 

Although the GDP growth rate is negative, the total GDP still exceeds one trillion yuan, reaching 1,017.285 billion yuan. "This amount is equivalent to the annual economic scale of Sichuan in 2007." In his view, the total amount continued to expand, indicating that despite the greater impact of the epidemic, the "basic disk" of Sichuan's economic growth in the first quarter of this year remained strong.

 

What's more worth mentioning is that as the whole province persists in coordinating and advancing the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development work, the epidemic prevention and control has achieved important phased results, and the economic and social operation order is restored and the "fast forward button" is pressed. Since March, a number of major economic indicators have rebounded significantly.

 

In the first quarter, the province’s planned industrial added value fell by 0.9% year-on-year, and social fixed asset investment fell by 4.3% year-on-year. The province’s total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 13% year-on-year. Although the decline was smaller than the national average, the impact of the epidemic is still very obvious. Since March, the rate of decline has gradually narrowed, and the economy has shown positive changes. In the same month, some indicators changed from decreasing to increasing, and the trend of recovery was improving. Among them, the province's regulated industrial added value increased by 5.5% year-on-year; social fixed asset investment increased by 9.8% year-on-year; although the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 8.2% year-on-year, the decline was 28.6 percentage points smaller than that in February.

 

The resumption of work and production was steadily promoted, and the pace of recovery was significantly accelerated.

 

Zeng Junlin said that since the outbreak of the epidemic, the Provincial Statistics Bureau has broken the routine and carried out many rapid investigations. “Quick survey data shows that the resumption of work and production has continued to rise. As of the end of March, the province’s regulated industries have basically resumed work, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate has basically returned to the normal annual average.” In addition, as of the end of March, the province’s regulations have been on the rise. The resumption rate of service companies, investment projects, and commercial enterprises all reached more than 94.5%, which was a substantial increase from the end of February, and the company's production capacity, full production rate and expectations are gradually increasing.

 

In the first quarter, the province's industrial electricity consumption was 12.14 billion kWh, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year. In March, the Sichuan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) returned to above the point of ups and downs, reaching 51.3%, up 16.5 percentage points from February, and the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.9%, up 27.2 percentage points from February.

 

What do you think?

 

The crisis is organic, the new economy is surging, and the scale advantage makes Sichuan's economy more resilient

 

"The danger is organic." Zeng Junlin said that many industries seized the opportunity to accelerate their transformation and upgrading, and achieved contrarian growth in the first quarter.

 

The data shows that in the case of a year-on-year decline in the industrial added value under the provincial regulations, the industrial high-tech industry added value under the regulations in the first quarter ran a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2%. Among them, the electronics and communication equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.8% year-on-year. With the blessing of 5G and other new technologies and new applications, Ailian Technology, a subsidiary of Changhong Holdings, has become one of the representative companies that accelerate the fast running: the first 5G industrial Internet module will be launched and offline at the end of February; a contract with Shanghai Haisi will be signed at the end of March Hand in hand to accelerate large-scale commercial use; at the end of March, the 5G smart temperature measurement bracelet that can be used for real-time temperature measurement and monitoring will be delivered through 15 days of research and development...

 

"The epidemic has also forced many traditional industries to accelerate the embrace of new technologies and new applications." said Xie Hai, president of Chengdu Jiwei IoT Group Co., Ltd., a bulk commodity Internet platform company. The steel industry blast furnaces generally cannot be stopped, and inventories were once high due to the epidemic. In many places, there have been "explosion" of warehouses. In order to alleviate the urgent need, many companies have taken the initiative to urgently implement unmanned warehouse management systems and full-process online services.

 

The output of some high-value-added, high-tech products has also grown rapidly. In the first quarter, the output of urban rail vehicles in the province more than doubled, and solar cells increased by nearly 50%. The relevant person in charge of CRRC Chengdu Locomotive and Rolling Stock Co., Ltd. said that since the full resumption of work, the company has maintained the production rhythm of two new urban rail subway vehicles a day.

 

Effectively preventing and controlling the epidemic, the production of medical and anti-epidemic supplies has accelerated, and drugs and anti-epidemic products have increased substantially. In the first quarter, the province's output of masks reached 145 million, a 6-fold increase over the same period last year.

 

From the perspective of the service industry, the first quarter was significantly affected by the epidemic, but some modern emerging service industries grew rapidly. Among them, the operating income of software and information technology service industry, human resource service industry, and advertising industry increased by 16.6%, 12.5% ​​and 48% respectively.

 

From the perspective of consumption, despite the fact that the epidemic has greatly suppressed consumption, new online business models have developed well. In the retail sales of goods, in the first quarter, enterprises (units) above designated size in the province achieved a year-on-year increase of 11.9% in retail sales of goods through the Internet.

 

The advantages of large economic scale and large market scale also make Sichuan's economic development more resilient. "Last year, Sichuan's GDP reached 4.6 trillion yuan." Zeng Junlin said that a larger economic scale gives us stronger risk resistance. In addition, Sichuan's permanent population ranks fourth in the country, and its market potential is great.

 

How to do?

 

Not only pay attention to the resumption of work and production, but also pay attention to full production and production, stimulate consumption, and attach great importance to prices and employment

 

What should Sichuan do in the future? Behind the data for the first quarter, what are the issues that require close attention?

 

Zeng Junlin said bluntly that the future development still faces unprecedented difficulties, risks and uncertainties. As far as Sichuan is concerned, there are at least three issues that require close attention at this stage. "First, continue to pay attention to the resumption of work and production." In his view, the resumption of work and production has been basically achieved at this stage, and the focus of attention has shifted from the rate of resumption of work and production to the rate of full production and production.

 

"Recovery in the first quarter, and speed up in the second quarter." Zhu Jiade, director of the Provincial Department of Economy and Information Technology, said that to promote the steady recovery of key industries, the next step will focus on promoting the smooth operation of upstream and downstream supply chains in electronic information, equipment manufacturing and other industries to accelerate stable production. Reached full production and overproduction.

 

"Second, we need to pay close attention to demand." Zeng Junlin said, judging from the situation in March, the overall economy is recovering and picking up, but the recovery of production is better than demand. Under such circumstances, Sichuan needs to pay special attention to demand and "turn" both the wheels of investment and consumption. "Recently, the province has introduced many new policies and measures to stimulate consumption. We still need to continue to promote implementation and increase innovation." To enhance investment stamina, all parts of the province are actively pursuing the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing dual-city economic circle. opportunity.

 

“Thirdly, people’s livelihoods need to be closely monitored. Among them, prices and employment need to be highly valued.” Zeng Junlin said, driven by rising food prices, especially pork prices, the province’s consumer price index (CPI) continued to operate at a high level, rising by 6.2 year-on-year in the first quarter. %, an increase of 4.4% over the same period last year. "Under the high prices, we need to pay special attention to the impact it has on the lives of difficult groups." Zeng Junlin said that in March, the province's CPI has fallen slightly, up 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate is 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month.

 

In terms of employment, the Sichuan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in the first quarter, the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns in Sichuan was 6.1%, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year. The relevant person in charge said that the employment situation this year has become more severe due to the impact of the epidemic. At present, with the orderly progress of the resumption of work and production of enterprises, the labor and employment situation is improving month by month, but all parties still need to attach great importance to the "combination punch" of stabilizing employment.

 

Lu Rongdong, president of the Provincial Economic Development Research Institute, said that in the context of the current downward pressure on my country's economy being further affected by the epidemic, increasing the employment rate requires the cooperation of all parties and multiple measures. “The impact of the epidemic on the new economy is relatively small, and the demand for online education and online video live broadcasts is still growing.” In his view, the government can introduce more supportive policies during and after the epidemic to encourage the new economy to vigorously. Development and create more employment and entrepreneurial opportunities for workers.